Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 10.587658 12.407664 14.394537 16.717832 19.352850 22.241325 25.639723
2025-01-26 8.283970 10.897729 14.029667 18.025621 22.951670 28.786749 36.178819
2025-02-02 6.627222 9.631248 13.526196 18.865568 25.902255 34.757640 46.627433
2025-02-09 5.460808 8.662903 13.108263 19.583866 28.602743 40.523552 57.236944
2025-02-16 4.404275 7.587603 12.296229 19.544749 30.149759 44.782982 66.111109
2025-02-23 3.498712 6.529730 11.293553 19.017145 30.842231 47.808623 73.412449
2025-03-02 2.757355 5.568792 10.256233 18.241658 31.000499 49.980659 79.549608
2025-03-09 2.299126 4.990426 9.722795 18.146217 32.115408 53.553672 87.870531
2025-03-16 1.896072 4.424200 9.110221 17.815488 32.778156 56.431029 95.272104
2025-03-23 1.730846 4.284314 9.222956 18.714982 35.495436 62.639953 108.101862
2025-03-30 1.504541 3.969799 8.959835 18.901490 37.000957 66.985658 118.231725
2025-04-06 1.298433 3.653679 8.642034 18.937474 38.223977 70.917344 127.885112
2025-04-13 1.114176 3.355306 8.331413 18.981135 39.518927 75.148222 138.446104
2025-04-20 1.065589 3.378609 8.699638 20.398385 43.445607 84.108471 157.370062
2025-04-27 0.981100 3.291644 8.815682 21.317564 46.513499 91.768567 174.518393
2025-05-04 0.896678 3.184930 8.870040 22.109586 49.392670 99.254735 191.741267
2025-05-11 0.772512 2.934133 8.549926 22.064607 50.629006 103.866878 204.213814
2025-05-18 0.639185 2.616942 8.014917 21.478994 50.725025 106.390262 213.121309
2025-05-25 0.515861 2.290606 7.395946 20.618415 50.167383 107.640119 219.783025
2025-06-01 0.442609 2.108123 7.118611 20.512428 51.160295 111.845391 231.970006
2025-06-08 0.371189 1.907040 6.753022 20.145267 51.553551 114.904755 242.174294
2025-06-15 0.351756 1.898860 6.932868 21.143544 54.995496 124.075558 264.146761
2025-06-22 0.311424 1.792752 6.807086 21.350439 56.685281 129.855501 279.953657